A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the political, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in academia but hardly any government figures or advocates are willing to participate with even the essentials. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author supports unity or the current situation. They composes two articles that aim for neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over national emblems, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but both parties has possesses important lessons to gain from the alternative positions."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
